"I have been reading some reports on changes in the Horn of Africa by one
commentator and I found myself confronted by what US President Trump
has now famously branded as “fake news.” Mohamed
- Rather than taking the time to consult deeply with those whose expertise
would allow for these changes to be understood in depth, some
commentators, instead have dwelt on rumors, speculations and the
proffering of biased political agendas. It has been insinuated that the Horn of Africa’s regional economic
integration pact bringing together Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia will
leave Somaliland as the biggest losers.
One report titled “Winners and Losers in Horn of Africa’s regional
economic pact” created a totally misplaced opinion on Somaliland.
As
a Somaliland citizen working for a respected civil society umbrella
organization that deals with regional foreign policy in depth, I feel
compelled to respond directly to the Somaliland aspect of the report.
Misplaced argument being fronted is that, the warming of relations and a
trilateral pact between the leaders of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and
Somalia harkens the isolation of Somaliland from the geopolitics and
economic relations of the region. Some commentators claim that these
recent diplomatic movements prove that Somalia is committed and willing
to flex its muscles in ways that threaten Somaliland’s long-term dream
of being recognized for the independence it reclaimed in 1991, after
dissolving its failed union with Somalia.
This judgment, which to my eyes seems like it was produced behind the
comfort of a desk, by a writer with little practical experience or
exposure to Somaliland or its relations with its neighbors, presents a
misreckoning and misunderstanding of the dynamics at work. This would
not be a problem except for the fact that the conclusions only serve to
feed the chauvinism of Somaliland’s most unsophisticated and cynical
detractors, while painting a false and shortsighted view of the Horn’s
regional geopolitical history, in ways that miss the productive
potential and hope for all populations in the Horn of Africa, with the
peace and reconciliation that is transpiring being a win-win situation
for all involved.
Somaliland’s Importance to the Region
Some commentators have overlooked the strategic importance of
Somaliland’s territorial positioning, situated as it is at the cusp of
the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, with a coastline that straddles
the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, crossing between the Red Sea
and the Indian Ocean close to the Gulf Aden. This territory is under the
full control of the Government of Somaliland, with the government in
Mogadishu having no ability or jurisdiction to decide what happens
there, and this concrete material reality cannot be easily wished away
or ignored when it comes to regional politics.
DP World, the United Arab Emirates and the Federal Government of
Ethiopia understand this reality, which is why they signed an agreement
in Dubai in March 2018 for the expansion and management of the Berbera
Port.
This agreement immediately changed the dynamics of the region and
transforming trade discussions between Somaliland and Ethiopia from one
based on an incremental trade and transit deal, to talk of Somaliland
being a key economic hub in the region’s regional economic integration
initiatives.
Berbera Port is one of the oldest and most strategic maritime transit
points in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, and was the source of
fierce competition during the bipolar international politics of Cold War
rivalries, when it served as a military naval base alternatively used
by the Soviet Union and the United States of America, as regional
alliances shifted. Today, Berbera is still seen as vital among
international powers in this imminent of multipolar politics, as is
clear by the enthusiasm with which the UAE agreed with the Somaliland
government to establish a military base there. Construction for this
project is already underway.
The Berbera Port modernization deal is expected to serve as one of the
key regional strategic initiatives boosting trade connectivity,
enlarging regional and international economic integration, promoting
infrastructure development, and a creating conducive environment for
international foreign investors. Many Somalilanders see this as a time
of optimism and hope for an economically transformed future—we would
hope that journalists and commentators would do the same.
Furthermore, there is a long-standing relations of mutual necessity
between Somaliland and Ethiopia, with the former serving an
indispensable importer of goods and frontline partner in defending
against terror and other threats for the latter. Ethiopia’s capital,
Addis Ababa, is only 700km from Hargeisa, whereas the distance between
Addis and Mogadishu is twice that, meaning that Somaliland is able to
impact and support Ethiopia in a way that Somalia is not.
This geographical and socio-economic proximity has made Somaliland the
second largest trade client, with Ethiopia gaining 900million dollars
yearly in trade. These factors, combined with the potential benefit of
landlocked Ethiopia from Somaliland’s coastal access and the twice-daily
flights from Addis to Hargeisa, show just how intertwined the fates of
Somaliland and Ethiopia are in the long run.
Some authors have dedicated an inordinate percentage of content to
unfairly undervaluing Somaliland, compared to the many other supposed
‘winners’ and losers’ of these regional changes, and failed to
accurately report on the legitimacy of its claims to independence, and
the solidity of existence. Instead, they fail to interrogate or question
the claim that Somaliland is a ‘breakaway’ region of Somalia, despite
the vast historical record and clear evidence of the legality of
Somaliland’s withdrawal from its union with Somalia, and the regained of
its independence effectively.
With that in mind, I would like to set the record straight. The Republic
of Somaliland won its political independence from the British Empire on
26 June 1960, five days before Italian Somalia gained its own
independence, the same day (1 July) that the two separate entities
voluntarily joined together to form the Somali Republic. It took no
longer than six months for the legal basis of the merger to be called
into question, given the ambiguous nature through which Italian Somalia
decolonized and the faulty and illegitimate way in which the act of
merger was acceded to.
Nevertheless, Somaliland citizens became de facto part of a merger that
failed to deliver on the hopes of the original union, and instead
resulted in civil war, mass atrocity and the disintegration of law and
order, of which Somalilanders were the primary victim. As such, in 1991,
the people of Somaliland overwhelmingly decided to legally dissolve the
merger, and reclaim their independence.
While Somaliland citizens hope that their neighbors in Somalia return to
a climate of peace and safety, and have done our best to support this
through aid and solidarity, we are clearheaded enough to recognize that
what is currently considered the government of Somalia is not one that
can manage its own internal political and security affairs.
Somalilanders deplore the fact that Somalia has remained under the
occupation of African Union troops for more than a decade, and that its
unelected and unaccountable president is protected by foreign troops
while the country’s innocent civilians suffer every day from shelling,
killings, and bombing.
It is an affront to our sensibilities that Somalia’s political existence
is propped up through external assistance instead of the legitimacy and
confidence of the citizens in Somalia, while Somaliland’s existence
goes unrecognized, despite being made a concrete and formidable reality
by the citizens themselves, without any foreign intervention. The idea
that a meeting between three unelected foreign heads of state from the
region is all it takes to put Somalia back on track is flawed for the
very same reason, as it is only through the long-term, bottom-up
reconstitution of peace, reconciliation, trust, political will and
institutions that a new Somalia will be reborn (and this time without
Somaliland).
Moreover, regional dynamics remain in flux, with no clear winners or
losers but a complex set of trade-offs and openings that could lead to
progress or failure. For example, today, Ethiopia faces its own sets of
particular predicaments, with a political and socio-economic crisis in
certain cases leading to violent clashes and conflict across sectarian
and ethnic lines.
To solve these crises, especially in the Somali-predominant east of the
country, Ethiopia will rely on the strategic partnership it has
cultivated with Somaliland over many years. This partnership is
indispensable, as Somaliland works closely with Ethiopian authorities to
maintain of their shared 750km borders, including during the turmoil
that transpired in the Somali Region of Ethiopia in August 2018, when
Somaliland helped contain and manage the fallout.
When it comes to Somaliland and Somalia entered bilateral talks in 2012
as a means to advance and sustain regional and international peace, in
the name of turning a two-state reality into a two-state solution. What
is required for these talks to succeed is a political leader for Somalia
that is an honest broker, one who can be effective in his foreign
policy and can deliver at home as a representative of his people.
Somalia’s current president, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, has taken the
path of aggression and realpolitik over dialogue and persuasion in order
to attempt to win back Somaliland, a path that will never succeed, as
Somaliland’s democratically-based and consolidating state-building
process, is irreversible, and can never functionally integrate in the
agonizing situation of Somalia.
Somaliland has contributed extensively to regional and international
peace through its struggles against terrorism, piracy, and international
crimes. To gleefully paint a picture of Somaliland’s current position
in the region is thus not only cruel and misinformed but also equally
stands on the side of a less peaceful and more extremist world. In any
event, the region’s leaders are wise enough to realize that any regional
economic and security integration will necessarily involve Somaliland
as a strategic and competent partner.
Somaliland possesses vast strategic resources both on onshore and
offshore and is able to defend its territory responsibly. This is a
reality that cannot be erased by articles, nor by the daily barrage of
ineffectual letters and statements put out by Somalia to IGAD, the AU,
the UN, and others, demanding respect for Somalia’s sovereignty and
territorial integrity.
To invigorate the bilateral relations between Somalia and Ethiopia, it
will not come through the everyday beseeching of the international
community, nor will it come through undertaking pernicious and
underhanded actions against Somaliland or even Djibouti. Such nebulous
and shortsighted steps will only bring those regional populations that
have escaped Somalia’s mayhem into the fray, spreading instability at a
time when lasting peace in the Horn has never been more promising. The
Somali people, in general, have had integrity and pride, and there was a
time they were aspiring to lead the region of the Horn of Africa.
The sweeping, high-velocity changes happening in the region—which have
both inter-state and intra-state dynamics—have only just begun, and it
is too early to explain how they will play out. Any sustainable and
solid regional integration will take leadership and strategic vision to
emerge. This will require an assessment of common interests and the
division of economic and political labours, rather than cynical
assessments of winners and losers.
Now is a time to foster bilateral and
multilateral cooperation amongst regional actors, rather than sow
divisions, so that the Horn of Africa may become more peaceful, secure
and prosperous.
Mohamed A. Mohamoud (Barawani) is a civil society activist
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