Should other countries recognise Somaliland’s bid to become fully
independent? It has a good case, argues Bill Snaddon.
- Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991. But the small
east-African breakaway nation is still waiting for others to recognise
their bold decision. Despite its dogged efforts for international
recognition and admission into the club of nations, no other state
considers this land of 3.5 million people to be a proper country.
Likewise, the African Union and United Nations still view Somaliland as
part of Somalia. Officially, at least. Somaliland’s government enters
into diplomatic relations with these two bodies, as well as with the
Arab League and EU. It also has bilateral relations with several
countries.
Since 1991, Somaliland, for the most part, has grown into a
functioning democracy. Somalia, on the other hand, remains in a cycle of
violence. The Somali civil war, which began in 1991 – bringing an end
to Siad Barre’s regime – has never really ended. Barre had ruled Somalia
since 1969 when he came to power after a coup. Over the past 30 years,
as aid and outside support poured into Somalia, fighting and corruption
became entrenched.
Meanwhile, Somaliland — with little help from outsiders and minimal
aid — holds regular elections and leaders change without too much fuss. A
few scuffles here and there, some serious, and the occasional social
media shutdown, but nothing on the scale of what is seen elsewhere. It
is a flawed yet promising democracy rather than a fake democracy or
dictatorship in waiting. A parliament sits under a Somaliland flag and
people buy their goods and services with Somaliland shillings, or by
transferring phone credit. One US dollar currently buys around 9,500
shillings. And an army and police force are loyal to Somaliland’s
constitution. Hargeisa, the small and lively capital, hosts a yearly
international book fair that’s growing in popularity among Africans and
others.
Exporting livestock to the Middle East is Somaliland’s main industry,
accounting for almost three quarters of jobs. But the economy is not
healthy. The ongoing construction of a new port by DP World, a
Dubai-based company, in the Somaliland town of Berbera will help. But
much more investment is needed if the wanna-be country is to lift its
people out of poverty. Youth unemployment is close to 50 percent. Recent
figures are hard to find but according to 2012 World Bank numbers,
average yearly income is $348 (£267), making it one of the poorest
places in the world.
The importance of being stable
Crucially, however, the self-declared and autonomous Somaliland has
stability – and confidence in its own destiny to one day become a
recognised nation. News articles on Somaliland invariably mention how it
is a beacon of peace in a troubled region.
Why then, has it not been recognised as an independent country? And should it be?
Sa’ad Ali Shire, Somaliland’s former foreign minister and current
finance minister, tells me that fear is the biggest impediment to
outside recognition.
“The fear that the African Union might be upset. The fear that
secessionist movements in Africa and elsewhere might be encouraged. The
fear that it might be more difficult to fix the Somalia problem if
Somaliland was recognized.”
Another stumbling block, indirectly, is Eritrea and South Sudan.
These are the two newest countries in Africa. Eritrea, since its modern
birth in 1993, has become a repressive backwater; but a recent thawing
of tensions with old foe Ethiopia could set it on a more optimistic
path. South Sudan, since becoming a country in 2011, has mostly been
stuck in civil war; though a peace agreement signed in September 2018 is
showing tentative signs of sticking. The failure, so far, of these
“new” countries to find lasting peace is often cited as a reason to
prevent more new African countries to form.
This hurts Somaliland because without official recognition as a
country, it is unable to access assistance from global financial
institutions. Some argue, however, that being cut off from the World
Bank and the International Monetary Fund has helped Somaliland to chart
its own course while not becoming dependent on easy lines of credit.
Bordering on recognition
Mr Shire says Somaliland actually wants to restore the colonial
border that separated Somalia and Somaliland – the border that was
dissolved in 1960 when Somaliland shrugged off British rule and Somalia
became free from Italian colonialism.
Leaders in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, believe if Somaliland
were to officially become a nation it would further divisions within an
already turbulent country. Somalia also wouldn’t want to let go of its
northern neighbour owing to the strategic patch of land Somaliland
inhabits, nearing the entry to the Red Sea leading up to Saudi Arabia,
Egypt and Israel.
Somaliland’s northern border is 740km of coastline along the Gulf of
Aden. Across the water is war-torn Yemen. Ethiopia, which is opening up
at a rapid pace, sits on its western border. Puntland, another
self-declared autonomous nation inside Somalia, is to Somaliland’s east.
Mogadishu’s argument against Somaliland independence often comes back
to unity. Somalia and Somaliland share many things, language and Islam
being two big ones. It might persuade some, but won’t budge the minds of
many Somalilanders.
In 2001 Somaliland held a referendum that asked its people if they
wanted to adopt an independent constitution. The referendum was
monitored by the Initiative and Referendum Institute (IRI), a research
and educational group attached to the University of Southern California.
“An astonishing 97% voted in favour of the constitution and
reaffirmed Somaliland’s restoration of independence in 1991,” says
Robleh Mohamud Raghe, an analyst and former consultant in the office of
Somaliland’s presidency.
“The result of this poll clearly proved to the international
community that the people of Somaliland are content with independence
and have no interest in reuniting with Somalia.”
The concluding report, written by referendum monitors IRI, said there
was “widespread common sentiment that a ‘Yes’ vote would send a message
to the world that Somaliland deserved to be recognized”.
About two thirds the voting age population casted a ballot in the non-compulsory poll.
Fighting against indifference
Joshua Keating, a writer who studied Somaliland for his book
Invisible Countries: Journeys to the Edge Nationhood, says Somaliland’s
ambition to be recognised as a proper country is held hostage not by
fear or ill-will or calls for unity, but by a lack of interest.
“Statehood may be a legal concept, but achieving it is an entirely political process,” says Mr Keating.
“To the degree that foreign officials acknowledge Somaliland at all,
they are generally sympathetic to its history and admiring of its recent
accomplishments. Somaliland’s main obstacle is not the world’s
animosity, but its indifference.”
It’s difficult to disagree with this analysis. When leaders consider
the most pressing challenges around the globe, it’s hard to imagine
Somaliland’s desire for recognition entering the discussion. Not
worsening the situation down south in Somalia is much higher up the list
of global importance. To this end, world leaders would be reluctant to
grant Somaliland independence for fear of inflaming an already tense
region.
That, however, doesn’t make Somaliland’s recognition an unjust cause.
Nor will it stop Somaliland from pursuing its goal. They have a good
case.
For one, it has reality on its side. The country already exists. Its
main institutions are in place and it has the will of the people on its
side. All that’s needed is for a country or two to recognise it. A press
release followed by a photo op at a fancy Brussels hotel would do the
job. Other countries may follow. Or, one day, the African Union or
United Nations, providing the votes come in, may declare Somaliland a
country.
Finance minister Shire, who spoke to me when was he still foreign
minister, is “very optimistic” about Somaliland getting recognition
because “justice eventually prevails”.
He doesn’t however think it will be a big power like America or China that recognises Somaliland first.
“The first will come from Africa, probably with a nod or with no
objection from a powerhouse, or talks with Somalia will end up in a
referendum in which people will vote for independence.”
For now, we wait to see if officialdom will one day catch up with reality in the Horn of Africa.
Bill Snaddon is a freelance journalist and filmmaker who’s been
covering Africa since 2009. More on his website billsnaddon.com and on
Twitter @billsnaddon
Source: Democracyinafrica
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